MasterZymeth's and CraigLong's replies above could be on to something. While searching the web to see if this is a wide-spread problem (it is, and I found reports as far back as 2020), I stumbled upon this Reddit thread. Several users with this issue mention that they have other machines they don't use regularly anymore, and that what seems to have happened for them is that this machine uploaded its outdated copies instead of downloading the newer versions.
This made me realise that I completely forgot about an old desktop computer I still have at my parents' house. I turn this on maybe every couple of months when visiting them. I wouldn't have expected that I already had used OneDrive on that machine, but it seems to have been there, and with full local sync, as well. The frequency with which I turn on that machine would absolutely be consistent with the timespan of the change reversal I saw in my files.
I seem to have disabled syncing on that machine sometime last year, and I'm at least not aware of it having happened again since then. Fingers crossed. Perhaps some of you have infrequently used, maybe even forgotten OneDrive clients somewhere, as well?
What this boils down to is that apparently, the OneDrive software fails at one of the most basic requirements of a backup/sync tool by being unable to tell which copy of a diverged file is newer, and then proceeding to sync in the wrong direction. This is a serious case of "you had one job…" and will probably spell the end of my working relationship with OneDrive.
To lighten the mood, here's a bit I found in one of the other discussions of this issue that I found hilarious 😄
User: Save the file.
OneDrive: Got it!
User: Where?
OneDrive: What?