I have the same problem with AOL mail. It started two days ago (June 7). I called AOL yesterday and spoke to a support agent. After much back and forth and his remoting my machine and poking around, he told me to contact Microsoft. I dutifully did so, and the Microsoft technician confirmed that Outlook was not imposing any limit on any folders. So, today I contacted AOL again. After a long and frustrating exchange with an agent, a technician, and finally a Supervisor, I got nowhere. None of them were aware of any changes made to AOL's software or systems. Rather, they just kept telling me that AOL has had a long-standing limit of 5,000 messages per folder (clearly not something ever enforced technically), and that I should create separate folders and move 5,000 or fewer messages to each to avoid this limit (not an acceptable solution for me at all). They couldn't explain why the 5,000 limit was never actually applied, or why it is 10,000 messages now. And, most frustratingly, they could not escalate my call to anyone in authority at AOL to actually help me. The best they could do was suggest I lodge a complaint online with AOL. I will do that, but I don't have high hopes.
I'm running Outlook for Microsoft 365 MSO (Version 2205 Build 16.0.15225.20172) 64-bit.
The idea that this might be a bug and not an intentional change is intriguing. I'm not an IT expert by any stretch, but I'm wondering why it isn't affecting everyone at the same time. Would they deploy a change to different servers at different times or something like that?