Is there a stop to Internet Backgammon cheaters?

New study results.  This time I counted (using a program I developed) their come out roll of a 6 or equal rolls.

The expected probability is 33% (1/6 + 1/6)

I got 242/344 or 70%

 

I just wanted to clarify that the probability of rolling doubles is not 33%. If it were than the probability of rolling six sixes with six dice would be 100% (1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6).

The actual probabilty is 1/36 to roll a particular double, say 6-6. and 1/6 to roll any set of doubles. There are 36 combinations that two dice can be and six of those combinations are doubles.

The odds of rolling at least one six with two dice is 11/36 or 30.5%.

Having said that I agree that there are plenty of cheaters on MSN backgammon.

I just got taken by the cheat where they move their pip back and forth and then accuse me of cheating just before the clock somehow runs out on me and I am booted from the game.

You misunderstood.  I did not include the probability of rolling doubles ( here you are correct ).  I included the conditional probability that if you opponent rolls a given number on the come out roll, that you will roll that same number (1/6).

Otherwise you analysis is correct.

Your reply while appreciated, is obsolete.

The fact is the game is hacked by someone probably on the inside......

Attacking the messenger is a common form of denial.

Sony had or has the same problem of superiority, we saw how that went.

I bet it's the legal department...

Are there cheaters? It's very unlikely.

A master player wins 80% against inferior opponents, say backgammon experts. The other 20% is due to luck, such as by an inferior opponent foolishly doubling the master, but then getting incredibly lucky.

If there are any cheaters, there are very few. My win percentage is now 80%, never varies between 78-81%, and I don't cheat. My best streak is 43 wins in a row. My worst? 5 losses. How could that be possible if there were rampant cheating?

The alternative isn't nice. The problem is not with cheaters, or incredibly bad luck, but with you. You are just using poor strategies, even if it's because you temporarily forgot the good principles that have helped you to win (usually). Poor use of the doubling cube is often to blame.

Sometimes someone will get the perfect roll. If you leave something open, and only a 6-3 will get it, then SOMETIMES they'll roll a 6-3. You left it open. Don't complain about the dice.

Notes:

1. The better players seem to come out at certain times of the day and week.

2. The MS backgammon game has a couple bugs that cause disconnects in certain situations. Disconnects are most common when you roll doubles, make a partial move, and then undo that move. They're also common when you increase the doubling cube after your human opponent leaves. It's not a PC issue (other software is fine). It's not an ISP or wifi issue. (The 2 minute allowance should handle connectivity blips, and my browser runs fine, whereas MS backgammon disconnects are that uncommon.) There are also some random disconnects (server issues?). Disconnects show up as losses. So, you'll "lose" some games that you were about to win.

So I have enjoyed playing Backgammon in the past, but nowadays is just IMPOSSIBLE..........

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I've played Backgammon for decades, consider myself an expert of better, and accuse Micro Soft of ignoring the customers that have played Backgammon on their servers using their licenses which should allow for some product liability.

I have experienced many of the issues some of the customers online here share.

My advice to Micro Soft is to remove all the Backgammon games online exposed as hacked,  pursue the cheaters and have the Homeland Defense Office place them on the Terrorist Watch List as well.