3 for 3, exact timing,
"The Group Policy settings for the user were processed successfully. There were no changes detected since the last successful processing of Group Policy."
I'll stop spamming now... seems fairly apparent it's related to the application of group policy (for me) even though nothing is changing.
So i just checked the event viewer when this happened to me just right now. This happened on my work computer that is connected to AD DS and Azure AD.
For me at least, what you found seems to be valid. Maybe something is wrong with the GPO update or something?