Also having this same problem on a Surface Pro 3. (I had kinda hoped that Microsoft could at least get the drivers straight on its OWN hardware...)
I "upgraded" to Win 10 about two months ago (I wish I had gone back to 8.1 when I had the chance), and although there have been lots of other brokenness, this problem first showed up for me about two weeks ago - so it sounds like it's associated with a driver
update.
My machine now crashes with this error about every 2-3 days, but VIDEO_TDR_FAILURE (igdkmd64.sys) crashes have happened as close as a couple of hours apart.
My config is Surface Pro 3 (i5/8GB/256GB), with docking station, and attached Dell P2815Q 4K monitor (medium awful, slow, flaky firmware, don't buy one, but was stable until a couple of weeks ago).
Windows update says drivers are up to date. I cannot tell for sure what triggers this error, but since I am usually in Firefox, that's when it's crashed on me - no real reason to believe Firefox is the problem, though, given the nature of the failure, and
the fact that I never encountered this error in the previous 8 months I've had my SP3.
Unlike some here, my SP3 will reboot just fine after the error, leaving me to clean up the carnage of work-in-process at the time of the crash.
I fear that Microsoft is now focusing on the upcoming SP4, and those of us who bought SP3s are going to be left to deal with thrice-weekly MICROSOFT FAIL.
I want to love this computer, I really do, but you're not making it easy...