I am not an expert (nor do I play one on TV) but it seems that this warning " WARNING: updateId was already suspended for pending dynamic refresh of 403. BITS job{E453C5D0-8EE6-42D5-9A96-C2C6C3DD71ED}, updateId = 2CE6F542-0A50-4724-8AB2-0A99A00B4EA9.1; ignoring..." may be the root of the problem. BITS is the service that lets the updates communicate and the service is suspended before download even begins.
I found this at http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/cc720473(v=WS.10).aspx
Background Intelligent Transfer Service (BITS) is the service used by WSUS to download updates from Microsoft Update to the main WSUS server, as well as from WSUS servers to their clients. BITS also supports the transfer of files between peer computers in a domain.
Some download issues may be caused by problems with running BITS on the server or client computers. When you are troubleshooting download problems, after you have verified that all WSUS settings are correct on both the server and its clients, you should ensure that BITS is running properly on all affected computers.
BITS provides a downloadable tool called bitsadmin that allows you to verify and change BITS settings. For more information about the bitsadmin utility, see BITSAdmin Tool (http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=80934). This tool is available as part of the Windows Vista operating system, and also as part of the Windows XP Service Pack 2 Support Tools.
I don't know that it is specifically related to Win 8 but based on what I am reading from the log it may help. The other procedure from "I aim to misbehave" worked for my system so I am not going to mess with it while it is working. :-)